Correlation and Regression

Calculate and interpret correlation coefficients and regression lines at A-Level.

Correlation measures the strength and direction of a linear relationship. Regression provides the equation of the line of best fit.

Product Moment Correlation Coefficient (PMCC)

rr ranges from 1-1 to 11.

  • r=1r = 1: perfect positive linear correlation.
  • r=1r = -1: perfect negative linear correlation.
  • r=0r = 0: no linear correlation.

r=SxySxxSyyr = \frac{S_{xy}}{\sqrt{S_{xx}S_{yy}}}

where Sxy=xyxynS_{xy} = \sum xy - \frac{\sum x \sum y}{n}, Sxx=x2(x)2nS_{xx} = \sum x^2 - \frac{(\sum x)^2}{n}, Syy=y2(y)2nS_{yy} = \sum y^2 - \frac{(\sum y)^2}{n}.

Regression Line

y=a+bxy = a + bx where b=SxySxxb = \frac{S_{xy}}{S_{xx}} and a=yˉbxˉa = \bar{y} - b\bar{x}.

The line passes through (xˉ,yˉ)(\bar{x}, \bar{y}).

Hypothesis Test for $\rho$

H0:ρ=0H_0: \rho = 0 (no correlation). Compare rr with critical values.

Practice Problems

    1. Given summary statistics, calculate rr.
    1. Find the regression line and predict yy when x=15x = 15.
    1. Test at 5% significance whether there is positive correlation (n=10n = 10, r=0.55r = 0.55).

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Key Takeaways

  • PMCC rr: strength/direction of linear relationship.

  • Regression line passes through (xˉ,yˉ)(\bar{x}, \bar{y}).

  • Only interpolate — don't extrapolate.

  • Correlation ≠ causation.

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