Correlation and Regression

Calculate correlation coefficients and regression lines for IB Maths.

Correlation measures the strength of a linear relationship. Regression gives the line of best fit. Both are tested in IB Maths.

Pearson's Correlation Coefficient ($r$)

1r1-1 \leq r \leq 1. Positive: both increase. Negative: one increases as other decreases.

r|r| close to 1: strong. Close to 0: weak.

Calculate using GDC (formula in data booklet is complex).

Regression Line

y=a+bxy = a + bx (least squares). Use GDC.

  • Only use for interpolation (within data range).
  • Extrapolation is unreliable.

Coefficient of Determination ($r^2$)

r2r^2 gives the proportion of variation in yy explained by xx.

If r=0.9r = 0.9, then r2=0.81r^2 = 0.81 → 81% of variation explained.

Practice Problems

    1. r=0.85r = -0.85. Describe the correlation.
    1. A regression line: y=2.5x+10y = 2.5x + 10. Predict yy when x=8x = 8.
    1. Why shouldn't we extrapolate beyond the data range?

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Key Takeaways

  • rr measures linear correlation strength/direction.

  • Use GDC for calculations.

  • Interpolate, don't extrapolate.

  • Correlation ≠ causation.

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